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Global crisis foretold - ¿Are we on the threshold of a new world economic crisis?




Are living a stage without preceding in the history economic world, in which the main banks central of the world are have embarked simultaneously in political monetary "without limits", with experiments monetary as Quantitative Easing or types of interest negative. In such a situation the question is: does the current economic situation justify such extreme measures?; What will be the effects side in their economies household? and in the rest of the world?


In the case of Europe, the situation current not is so serious as to justify the buy massive of debt sovereign or impose types of interest negative. Far is the crisis of the summer of 2012 when Spain and Italy, both considered too big to fail (too big to fail) were on the verge of the financial bailout and an imminent bankruptcy. At that time, the European Central Bank (ECB) used all the tools at its disposal to prevent a greater evil, and got it. A resounding success for Mario Draghi and the ECB.


The ECB's extreme measures were necessary and response to the butterfly effect which had originated in the United States following the crisis of 2008 when the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States introduced in historical form its first programme of Quantitative Easing, known as QE1. In addition to its effect to level domestic, the QE1 contributed directly to the devaluation massive of the dollar to reach them 1.60 dollars by euro, eroding the competitiveness of Europe front them United States and Chinese (by then linked to the dollar with a type of change fixed). This situation was decisive in European crises as well as the consequent monetary response from the European Central Bank.

Now, on the other hand, the enemy is deflation, phenomenon that seems to startle enough to the ECB and the Bank of Japan to justify negative interest rates. But perhaps deflation is just an excuse to justify their actions and achieve its true objective: the competitive devaluation against other currencies. A strategy that seems to be running and that has devalued the euro until them 1.08 dollars, and to it currency Japanese until the environment of them 120 Yen by each dollar, improving thus its competitiveness facing United States and, therefore, facing China, whose currency is semi-pegada to the dollar.





So, as I discuss in the article the inevitable big devaluation of China published yesterday in the markets, we are stuck in a kind of snowball monetary in the form of currency war (currency wars) direct and indirect effects such as exporting deflation, increase the competitiveness of exports, or the potential monetization of debt, are the true objectives of central banks and Governments. Before this disturbing dynamics have to wonder: what are the side effects long term?; There is a clean out or we are doomed to a new crisis?

One of them risks that face is the loss of effectiveness of them political monetary, each time greater in size but minor in results, a phenomenon known as the law of them returns shrinking. Thus, for example, after the resounding success of QE1, the apparent fragility of the economic recovery in the United States led the fed to launch a second program in 2011, known as QE2, which despite having a size comparable to Q1 had a much more moderate impact. And not content with two rounds of QE, decided to launch a third programme in 2012 with a number of 40,000 million dollars (35.840 billion euros at current Exchange) a month "during all the time that is needed", that the market christened "QE to infinity". An error serious.

The biggest problem is the implicit message that central banks are giving us: "interest rates will remain low forever. You are wasting your time by leaving your money in cash. "Take risk". This has encouraged (or rather forced) to those investors to buy bag, buy bonds, buy houses, buy what is, less leave the money in deposit or in cash. But in a world in which good investment opportunities are limited, the excess risk can result in speculation and, of course, bubbles. The epicenter of the current problems is on the market of raw material, high yield (of high yield) bonds and emerging markets, all beneficiaries of the flow of capital fleeing low efficiency of State bonds, looking for high returns to - literally - any price. The time will tell if is a crisis localized or, as I fear I, the tip of the iceberg of a problem much greater.

Who will be guilty? (In my opinion, the abuse of political monetary and it loss of independence between them banks central and them Governments, that is manifest in the war of them badges that is putting to test: 1) the limits of the political monetary; (2) the limits of the credit market; and (3) the limits of the system of Fiat currencies.


And I wonder, would qui custodiet ipsos custodes? (who watches the watch over us?). Because them banks central, whose function main is safeguard the stability financial of the system, seem to have lost its independence and be the main instigators of what can be it greater bubble financial of it history: a crisis global announced.









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